Holdem: Flop Statistics

See also Holdem: Manipulating Your Opponents

There are 19,600 Hold'em flops. We'll list the statistical facts which accurately describe the composition of most flops:

  1.  The flop will be Ace or King-high 40% of the time.
  2. The flop will contain at least one of your cards 32% of the time. For example, if you hold a Jack, one of the remaining three will appear on the flop about 15% of the time and, on your lucky days, two Jacks will be flopped 1% of the time. You will also flop split two pairs 2% of the time.
  3. The first three community cards will contain a pair, whose rank does not match your cards, 17% of the time. When a pair is flopped, the probability that one player holds one of the remaining two cards of that denomination is about 7%. Therefore, if four players pay to see the flop, one of them will have trips about 30% of the time.
  4. If the flop does not contain a pair, it will be paired about 40% of the time by the end of the deal.
  5. Two or three cards of the same suit will be flopped about 55% of the time.
  6. If you hold two suited cards, the flop will offer you a flush 0.83% of the time and a draw to the flush about 11% of the time.
  7. Two connected cards will be flopped 34% of the time.
  8. If your starting cards are connected and have maximum stretch, like J-T or 6-5, you will flop an open-ended straight draw about 10% of the time and a straight 1.3% of the time. Cards with limited stretch, like Q-J, will flop an eight-card draw to the straight about 6% of the time.

The other important data that you should remember are the frequency of flopping specific cards.  As the high card rank of the flop changes, the threats posed or indeed the opportunities offered to your cards vary. Generally speaking, as the denomination of the highest card on the flop decreases:

  1. the frequency of flopping suited cards decreases and, consequently, flushes and draws to the flush are less likely;
  2. the frequency of dealing connected cards increases, thereby enhancing the probability of flopping straights or straight
  3. draws as well as two pairs;
  4. pairs are dealt more frequently. In this case the threat or delight of full houses, trips and two pairs increases.