No Limit Holdem: Bet Sizing and Thin Value

See also

When we are betting, how large should our bets be? In No Limit Hold 'em we have a lot of options.
For a while, there was a standard mantra for bet sizing. The accepted standard was to make a pot-sized bet on the flop, between 2/3 and 3/4 pot on the turn, and between 1/2 and 2/3 on the river. The assumption behind these bet sizes, particularly the river, was that a smaller bet would be called more often than a larger bet. The classic "don't want to scare him away" thinking. This is dumb.

Most players make the decision whether or not to call, raise, or fold based off two main considerations:

  1. Their cards. Most players won't fold AA on a JT9 board when facing a ton of action because hey, they've got aces - even thouah thev're relatively unlikely to be ahead.
  2. The board texture. QQ is likely to get a lot of money in as an overpair, but shuts down as soon as an A or K falls.

The size of the bet facing them, in most scenarios, is a distant, distant third. Obviously, if we bet 2 dollars into a pot of 800, nobody is going to fold. And, if we bet 800 dollars into a pot of 2, nobody is going to call without the nuts. However, let's say the pot is 50. If he'll call a 35 dollar bet, what about a 36 dollar bet? 38? 42? 48? Even if he is slightly less likely to call a 48 dollar bet than a 35 dollar bet, the extra money we make when he does call the larger bet more than compensates for the additional times he calls the 35 dollar bet. So, when we're frying to get value, bet bigger.

Sometimes, though, our value bets will be less cut-and-dried. If we have JJ on a T54J5 board, it's very easy to bet for value. What if, on the same board, we have AT instead? How about T9? In all three situations, it's likely we have the best hand, and we may bet for value. If we bet with JJ, anything that calls us is worse so we can quite comfortably go for maximiun value. With AT, some hands that would call our value bet are better (AJ, KJ, QJ, etc.), and some are worse (KT, QT, T9, T8). With T9, there are very few hands that are worse that could potentially call a bet (T8, 99, 88). So, if we bet large enough with T9 that our opponent is likely to fold hands like 88, suddenly the bet becomes bad - we can't get called by worse or fold out better. So, we need to choose a bet size that makes us sure he is still likely to call with worse. So, we might bet very small with T9 on that board - possibly as small as 1/5 pot. With AT, we might bet as small as 1/2 pot. This concept is called thin value.

Thin Value Betting means making a bet to be called by worse hands, accepting that many better hands will also call the bet and understanding that the value obtained from worse hands will be more than the money lost to better hands. The "thinner" your bet (i.e. the more better hands and the fewer worse hands that will call), the smaller your bet size should generally be. Sometimes, a bet will be so thin that you'll need to make your bet very small - possibly as small as 1/5 pot at times. Other times, you may settle for half-pot as a thin value bet. The idea is to retain the very worst end of his range - hands that are weak enough that they will actually be affected by whether or not our bet is large. Sometimes this means trying to get value out of Ace-high or bottom pair. In order to accomplish this, we usually have to reduce our bet size.

Value betting is the way to beat poker. The more value we can squeeze out of hands that are likely ahead, the more money we're going to make in the long run. Understanding how to change your value bet sizes depending on the "thinness" of your bet will help you get the maximum amount of value with vour entire range.