Odds In Omaha: After The Flop

 See also

Nut Hand or Nut Draw.
Because almost the entire deck (77%) is distributed before the Flop and is held in players' hands, it is almost certain that the Flop will have hit one or more of those hands and the presence of the nut hand and/or the nut draw is a high probability.
Only the very best starting hands offer a significant advantage over the others, because of the large number of cards held in the players' hands and the small number of cards in the Flop.

Once the Flop has hit the board, you have 7 of the 9 cards that will make your best and final hand for both Low and High. Money expectation aside, as a general rule only continue to invest in the hand with the nuts or a reasonable draw to the nuts in either direction, preferably both. If you don't have them, the nuts that is, there are many chances that at least one of your opponents does.
The Omaha player who receives optimal return from his game is the player who is able to continuously convince his opponents to put more money into the pot with weaker hands and lesser draws.

Money & Expectation After the Flop.

After the betting on the Flop in limit games, the stakes usually double and the cost to continue in the hand increases. As each card is placed on the board the likelihood of improvement decreases. As each bet or raise is made or called the money odds get better.
In Omaha Hi-Lo the pot is often split, and many times will be split among more than 2 players. Omaha Hi-Lo is one of the few games in poker where the absolute nut hand can wind up losing money. It is also a game where, given usually large pots, playing unidirectional hands, regardless of strength, can carry a much-reduced expectation over the same hand in non-split games.
In split games, the difference between scoop and not-scoop is dramatic. If 4 players each have 5200 invested in an $800 Omaha Hi-Lo pot:

Scooper Earns $600 Profit
Low Half Earns $200 Profit
Quartered Low Earns $000 Profit

With a nut Low draw or made nut Low hand, primary considerations are:

  1. Whether there will be 3 low cards on the board on the Flop or by the River
  2. Whether the hand is the draw or the nuts
  3. The likelihood the low will be quartered or worse
  4. The chance the low will be counterfeited
  5. The presence of a backup or extra low card in the hole in case of a counterfeit on the Turn or River.

With a made nut High hand or nut High draw, consider:

  1. Whether or not there will be a possible Low to split the pot
  2. The likelihood the hand or draw is the nuts
  3. Whether the hand will make or remain the nuts
  4. For certain hands, whether the board will pair
  5. The likelihood that the high hand is the only high among several low hands/draws.

To optimize the opportunity with a double-nut/scoop hand or draw, consider:

  1. If the hand is already made in one or both directions
  2. The likelihood the hand will be made in either or both directions
  3. If the hand/draw is the nuts in either or both directions
  4. The odds the hand will be broken/counterfeited by the end
  5. With a true double-nut hand, how to get more money into the pot.

Odds of Improvement. 
Once the Flop has hit the board, you have 7 of the 9 cards that will make your best and final hand. After the Flop and with 2 cards to come, regardless of the hand, any player still involved must know

  • The odds of improvement on the next card {the Turn)
  • The odds of improvement over the next two cards (the Turn and the River)
  • The odds of hitting certain Runner-Runner hands.